1. Background
Andhra Pradesh, a southern state sends 42 members to Lok Sabha (8% of total Lok Sabha strength). Hence it is a crucial state and plays a key role in government formation. It has been a Congress bastion with regional parties like Telugu Desam Party (NT Ramarao) and gaining some prominence since 1980s. Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) has also of late gained some traction due to demand of separate statehood of Telangana region.
Recently, Govt. of India, has passed the bill for bifurcation of the state into Seemandhra (25 seats) and Telangana (17 seats). Elections to the state assembly are also being held together with Lok Sabha polls.
While Congress and BJP supported the state bifurcation, TDP and Jagan Reddy’s YSR Congress opposed the move. TRS chief K.C. Rao had promised that he would merge his party with Congress if Telangana is created, he later ditched Congress. BJP and TDP were in alliance talks for some time but problem was Naidu opposed Telangana while BJP supported it. This would harm BJP in Telangana and TDP in Seemandhra. In the end they went ahead with the alliance. Congress CM Kiran Reddy has also floated a party but likley to have little impact. Pawan Kalyan (actor and cousin of Chiranjeevi) is supporting Modi for PM but not putting up candidates of his newly formed party Jana Sena.
Congress did really well in 2004 and 2009 elections winning 29 and 33 seats respectively riding on YSR’s wave and great performance in Andhra helped it form UPA I and UPA II at the center.
2. Historical Results
| Parties | 1957 | 1962 | 1967 | 1971 | 1977 | 1980 | 1984 | 1989 | 1991 | 1996 | 1998 | 1999 | 2004 | 2009 |
| Congress | 37 | 34 | 35 | 28 | 41 | 41 | 6 | 39 | 25 | 22 | 22 | 5 | 29 | 33 |
| TDP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 13 | 16 | 12 | 29 | 5 | 6 |
| BJP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| TRS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
| Others | 6 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Total | 43 | 43 | 41 | 41 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 41 | 42 | 42 |
Source: Statistical Reports, Election Commission of India
3. Demographics of State
Hindus comprise of 89%, Muslims 9% and Christians 1.5% of the undivided Andhra population. In Telangana Hindus comprise 84%, Muslims 12% & Others 4%.
4. 2014 Lok Sabha Results
The results of Andhra Pradesh was not surprising as Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) won majority of seats in the region which were their stronghold, i.e. Telangana and Seemandhra respectively.
Though, there was a tough fight between Jaganmohan Reddy-led YSRCP and Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP, the latter managed to get 16 seats with BJP bagging three seats- two in Seemandhra and one in Telangana.
U may just see the reversal of YCP and TDP fortunes..
TRS can not win all 17 in Telangana with 4 seats of Greater Hyderabad will have BJP and MIM fighting hard
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Thanks Venkat for following the blog. If fortunes reverse and the seats don’t go to Congress, merrier for BJP.
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Whatever Congress does..
Its going to be TRS & BJP sweep in TG I wish MIM loses even its hyd seat..
It will be all out fight between TDP & YCP with another congress party to come up soon
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Thanks Venkat Keep reading, participating, criticizing and comment if the projected nos. for AP are good to go or need change.
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Don’t think including TRS under Congress+ has any basis. They are neither in state, central govt nor supporting it from outside..
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Ok. Fair Point. But if Telangana is created, then TRS might be obligated to merge with Congress or have a pre-poll alliance. As Rao has said that he will merge with Congress if Telangana is created by them. That’s the basis.
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So far Congress has put the Hyderabad litigation that’s not acceptable to any 1 in Telangana.
What KCR said was 2 years back then congress Sonia G gave cold shoulder did not even meet him and then He had to FIRE his salvo in 2013 where in he attacked Nehru, Indira and Sonia for the generational betrayals…
He will have LAST laugh..
He has built the party to develop Telangana not Congress Party..
Losing Congress will be dumped by all in 2014
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Ok. Gud. It means 218-220 seats for BJP from the current 205 I have projected as TRS might support BJP post elections.
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TRS and BJP are part of TJAC in the entire Fight since 2009 Dec 9 betrayal
Congress is not part of it nor is TDP
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