#BiharElections2020: Lokniti-CSDS opinion poll increases suspense


The Lokniti-CSDS has carried out an opinion poll on Bihar and it predicts a simple majority for NDA. After VDP Associates and C-Voter, this is the 3rd poll which is giving NDA an edge despite growing anger against Nitish.

My analysis of the poll and the interesting angles it throws light on:

  1. NDA is benefitting from split in opposition vote

-Tejashwi decision of letting go Kushwaha hurting MGB

-BJP decision of letting LJP contest separately working

2. However the 6% gap enjoyed by NDA is not a decisive lead

-It needs to be at 42%-45% to be comfortable –

-Others 30% getting a leg up from LJP & RLSP contesting alone, more in line with historical trend

3. 10% voters undecided + 14% swing voters {24%} is in line with national trend

-Undecided max go with winning horse so such polls help NDA

-Swing can change mind depending upon momentum…

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