In Part 1 of this series on factors impacting outcome of Bihar elections, we analyzed factors like leadership ratings, caste arithmetic, equation between Nitish and Modi, COVID and turnout, and role of vote katwas. In part 2, we analyze 5 more factors which are likely to have a bearing on results of Bihar polls.
1. Economy (Unemployment & Migrant Crisis)
The pandemic has rendered many people jobless. Around 30-40 lakh migrant workers have returned from other states to Bihar. Small businesses have witnessed an impact on their continuity with many closed permanently. Of the 53 districts which registered the highest number of migrant labourers returning home, 15 recorded more than one lakh returnees. Of these districts, eight are in Bihar. Unemployment in Bihar was greater (double) than the national rate of 23.5% in April 2020 at 46.6%.
The rollout of NREGS in all districts and Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana…
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