Battleground Rajasthan (4) : Modi Factor leads to historical win in 2014

The verdict

The phenomenal performance of Bharatiya Janata party in the assembly election was further consolidated in the Lok Sabha election held in April 2014 where the BJP won all the 25 constituencies amassing support of more than 55% of the electorate. The emphatic nature of the BJP win 2014 was further established by the fact that the party was leading in as many as 184 out of 200 assembly constituencies. After a humiliating defeat in the Lok Sabha, Congress could not even open its account in the state managing only 30.7 %  vote share which was a further decline of 3 % points over its assembly performance.

The only other occasion when a political party could manage to win all the 25 seats was in 1984 when the Congress achieve the target in the polls held closely after the assassination of the Indira Gandhi. In all the Lok Sabha elections held in Rajasthan after 1998 the party which had won in Vidhan Sabha elections held a few months earlier managed to win the Lok Sabha elections. This trend was maintained.

BJP won all seats, Congress couldn’t open its account

BJP received 19 percent more votes, compared to 37 percent in 2009. The party managed to win all the 25 seats, while in 2009 it won only 4 seats. Congress, which was in power in the country at that time, received 15 percent lower votes compared to 47 percent in 2009. The Congress which had won 20 seats in 2009, failed to open its account in 2014. This was the first time in Rajasthan’s history when the BJP got more than 50 percent of the votes.

A repeat of 1989 in 2014

The people of Rajasthan repeated the history of 1989 in the 2014 elections. The Congress could not open its account even in 1989 amid Bofors scam. In 1989 BJP won 13 seats, Janata Dal 11 and CPM won 1 seat. Even before, in 1977, when the Congress suffered a humiliating defeat at the centre due to anger against Emergency, Congress had barely managed to win one seat.

BJP gets more support from OBCs, Dalit and tribal class

BJP received overwhelming support from all sections of the society. BJP got good support from OBC, Dalit and Adivasi class. From the OBC category voters, BJP got 42 per cent support in 2009, while in 2014, 61 per cent expressed confidence in the party. Traditionally, the general category (upper caste) has been a supporter of the BJP. Prior to the elections, there were news of forward caste being unhappy due to ticket distribution. However results proved otherwise.

Educated section supported BJP

The young face MMS government, Rajasthan Congress’s Sachin Pilot also failed to attract the youth and lost his seat. BJP received good support from the youth and the educated class. 62 per cent of the people who took college-level education supported the BJP while the Congress got 34 percent support only. 63 percent of the rich, supported BJP and 42 percent of the poor sections supported the Congress.

According to CSDS post poll survey, Congress received 31 and BJP 67 percent of the rural votes. Increasing levels of education in the public and improved economic conditions have strengthened the BJP. This fact cannot be said to be good for the Congress

Strong Anti-Incumbency

The major reason for the tremendous BJP victory in Rajasthan was enormous dissatisfaction with the Congress led UPA government at the center.

The Modi Factor

Modi factor was one of the strongest in Rajasthan.

The ‘Modi wave’ in Rajasthan is for the substantiated by the fact that 42% of the respondent felt that the overwhelming BJP victory in the Assembly election was due to campaigning done by Narendra Modi only 7 % attribute the BJP victory to the leadership of Vasundhara Raje.


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