India 2019 Election Predictions Update

By – Subhash Chandra

All said and done, BJP still appears to be ahead of the curve for the 2019 election. Summarising predictions below from our web-site. Figures indicate shift from a fortnight ago.

All India (Click here)

BJP – 237 (-1)

Congress – 107 (+1)

BSP -11 (0)

SP – 13 (0)

SHS – 13 (0)

DMK – 16 (16)

TMC – 23 (+1)

TRS – 10 (0)

TDP -11(0)

UP (Click here)

NDA- 49 (-2)

UP-BSP (Click here)

BSP – 13 (+2)

Bihar (Click here)

NDA – 26 (+2)

Bengal (Click here)

BJP – 12 (+1)

Maharashtra (Click here)

BJP – 25 (-1)

Kerala (Click here)

Congress – 8 (+1)

Tamil Nadu (Click here)

DMK Alliance – 26 (-1)

Rajasthan (Click here)

BJP – 13 (+2)

MP (Click here)

BJP – 19 (+2)

Karnataka (Click here)

BJP – 16 (New)

Gujara(Click here)

BJP – 20 (new)

India PM Prediction

Narendra Modi – 80%

Most Preferred Opposition Leader

Rahul Gandhi – 21%

Number 1 focus required from the Central Government

Primary Education Quality – 33%

With BJP settling at the 235-240 range and the Congress party in the 100-110 range, the election seems to have settled in a Rhythm. The Congress appears to be gaining some 30 Seats in direct competition with BJP and another 20 seats in alliance in Bihar, UP etc and another 5-10 seats elsewhere compared to 2014. While these numbers appear to be optimistic, they seem to be reiterated from two different prediction methods. Predictors must be cautious about the build up. The BJP has gained in both Rajasthan (probably due to the PM visit) and also in MP compared to last week. It appears to have lost in both Karnataka and Maharashtra

Rahul Gandhi does not appear to be enjoying huge support amongst voters though as the CSDS survey indicates is on an upswing and some 10-15 points away from Modi. The opposition leader closest to Rahul Gandhi is Chandrababu Naidu.

Overall, the election environment is still favourable to the BJP. However, should the Congress party end up with even 80-90 seats, their tails will be up for future elections. The political environment is far from moving to a single party rule, the voters appear to be far more complex than we would like to believe.




  1. There are many factors that differentiate 2014 from 2019. I will not share the popularity of Modi, its appeal etc. As elections are 10 months away and things and perception can change in any direction. Hence, this prediction will be entirely based on the numerical balance due to alliances, possibilities of repetition of 2014 and the general trend in assembly elections.


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