- Turnout (TO) has been a key determinant of results of assembly elections
- Higher turnout denotes anti-incumbency and desire of voters to overthrow the government
- Lower turnout denotes voters not enthused about overthrowing government
- An analysis of 12 big states which went to polls after Lok Sabha elections in 2014 throws interesting trend
- 8 states voted out state governments, 7 of them recorded a higher TO
- Only Punjab which saw change of govt. recorded a low TO
- 4 states re-elected the incumbent governments, 3 of them recorded low TO
- Only Bihar recorded a high TO and still re-elected govt.
- So TO will play a crucial role
- Higher TO means high anti incumbency against Siddaramaiah
- Low TO means he is safe
- Different regions have different turnout dynamics
- Bengaluru low TO will damage BJP prospects
- Other factor is NOTA
- Higher NOTA will benefit Congress, as it denotes people unhappy with Congress but not confident of BJP solving their problems
- Top 4 NOTA voting big states are Bihar, Gujarat, WB, TN
- Common thread all returned incumbent govt.
- Now its all about D-Day management, voter mobilization, ensuring support groups vote / remain enthused to vote
- Its a weekend BJP needs to ensure high TO in urban seats and ensure people don’t make weekend plans
