Exit Polls in line with expectations except TN

Exit Polls were released for the four states which went to polls in April-May this year. The results were in line with expectations – Assam (BJP), West Bengal (TMC) and Kerala (Left). However, the Tamil Nadu results could come as a surprise to many given Amma was expected to win.

Source: http://www.ndtv.com

1. Assam

BJP is expected to sweep the state as per exit polls with seats in the range of 63 (News Nation) to 90 (Today’s Chanakya). Congress is expected to get 27-46 seats. The strong anti-incumbency against 15 year old Gogoi govt. is the main reason for Congress defeat. Only C-Voter predicts a hung assembly with BJP at 57, Congress at 41 and AIUDF at 18 seats with a possibility of Congress and AIUDF coming together to form govt. Chances of this survey coming out to be true are nil. In terms of vote share, BJP is expected to get 43%, Congress 32% and 11% (Chanakya).

The results are in line with Politicalbaaba (PB) projections of 75 (BJP)-30 (Congress)- 20(AIUDF). In two articles published in DailyO and Yahoo (co-authored with SC), PB had pointed out why BJP was front runner in Assam and how division in Muslim votes will fail to save the day for Congress in the state.

2. Kerala

LDF is slated to sweep the state with seats in the range of 74-94 and Congress 38-58 seats. BJP is expected to get 2-8 seats opening its account for the first time in history. In terms of vote share LDF is likely to get 43%, UDF 41% and BJP (12%), as per NDTV poll of polls. Exit polls have an unanimous opinion on Kerala results, no hung, no UDF victory.

The results also here are in line with Politicalbaaba (PB) projections. In an article in DailyO co-authored with Subhash Chandra we had predicted that Left will sweep Kerala and the margin of victory will also be high, not a close election unlike 2011. On the BJP side I had also written on the blog as to how the party was in contention in 15 seats and sure shot opening its account this time.

3. West Bengal

Mamata led TMC is expected to win the state. However the estimates range from simple majority (153 News Nation) to 243 (India Today). Left + Congress alliance is expected to get anywhere between 45-136 seats. BJP is expected to get 0 (C Voter) – 14 (Chanakya). Vote shares expected to be 45% – 34% – 12%. Here everybody is unanimous but there is a big range which has left people confused. Of course only one will be correct.

PB had foretasted simple majority for Trinamool (150-135) – Campaign 360 – and a close fight which I still stand by, let’s wait till 19th May. However, had written for DailyO that BJP is slated to finish 3rd. In a co-authored piece with SC for DailyO we had pointed out how muslim voters will be the key to victory in the state. As per caste data released by Axis and Chanakya, majority of the Muslims have voted for TMC ensuring its victory.

4. Tamil Nadu

In a shocking result, AIADMK is expected to lose the state bagging 105 seats while DMK+Congress will get a simple majority with 117 seats. BJP will fail to open its account. Numbers as per poll of polls on NDTV. Only C Voter is predicting a AIADMK win with 139 seats and 78 seats for DMK.

PB had not projected any seats for Tamil Nadu, but have always maintained on twitter, that I believe in trend and trend is supreme. In line with the trend DMK is expected to win.

To sump up, will there be any surprises on 19th? Exit polls point towards a trend and the direction provided is clear. Seat and vote share tally may differ though on the results day. Till then stay tuned.

Can exit polls go wrong? Yes. Have they gone wrong in the past? Yes. Will this be repeated this time? Looks unlikely! 

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