Politicalbaaba Projections Phase 1 & 2 Combined

As we approach Phase 3, I thought it’s good to reiterate my predictions for elections held till now on 81 seats (Phase 1 & 2 combined). There has been some confusion as people have picked up lower end of ranges and tweeted causing a lot of questions from followers on what’s my final count and as found out I too had made an error in calculations.

My pre-poll projections stand at 123-147 for NDA depending upon whether there is a wave or not (23 Sep. 2015). While a vote share in the range of 46-47% could fetch 147 seats (comfortable majority), a more benign vote share in the range of 42-43% may fetch 123 seats (simple majority). Link of detailed projections & rationale below:


There is a big discussion on social media, whether Janata alliance is ahead in Phase 1 & 2, if ahead by how much and whether the elections are a tight / close battle or not.

The score for 2010 assembly polls on these 81 seats was Janata alliance 54, NDA 23 & Others 4. Janata alliance was leading in 61 seats, NDA 19 and CPI in 1 seat (if you aggregate all their votes in LS polls held in May 2014). So Janata had a huge lead by whichever way you look at it (31 as per last assembly polls and 42 as per last LS polls). The average vote share gap in swing seats* in Phase 1 was 11% and Phase 2 was 9.7%. So any tally less than 61 or 54 is not a great performance by Gathbandhan.

*Swing seats are the seats in which NDA was leading in LS polls in 2014, but as soon as you aggregate the vote share of JDU and RJD / Congress (which fought separately then), NDA loses the lead and it goes to Janata alliance.

NDA is expected to win 35-41 seats, Janata alliance 38-44 seats and Others 0-2 seats in Phase 1 & 2. NDA is lagging by 3 seats in Phase 1 & 2 (base case) and 9 seats in a worst case scenario as per my estimates. This is not a bad performance by NDA by any standards. 38 seats means a gain of 15 seats from last assembly polls and double of what they were leading in LS polls. Even 35 means a gain of 12 seats from last assembly polls.

Party / Alliance Prediction Median Worst Best
NDA 35-43 39 35 43
Janata Alliance 37-45 41 45 37
Others 0-2 1 1 1
Total 81 81 81 81

The final tally in 2010 assembly polls was 141 for Janata alliance (JDU 115, RJD 22 & Congress 4). To win and be on the safe side NDA needs to reduce Gathbandhan tally to 100-110 seats. This means it has to snatch 31-41 seats from Janata alliance in 5 Phases. They needed to snatch 10-14 seats in Phase 1 proportionately, which they seem to have been able to do even in a worst case scenario of 35 seats. So NDA is on track.

I re-inforce my view point that this elections are very close and will go down to the last vote count. When I say close contest, people say that I am giving contradictory statements. This is because they are looking at the final tally only. Even a result of 143-100 in favour of NDA can be close elections, if the victory margins on majority of the seats is less than 3,00-5,000 votes.

Why would this elections be close?
• High number of candidates in every seat (average is 14 till Phase 3)
• Rebel candidates of both alliances, almost 1/3rd of the seats are witnessing serious rebels from either alliances
• High number of cross over candidates leaving the local cadre of parties un-enthused (BJP has given ticket to some ex JDU MLAs, RJD to LJP candidates and vice-a-versa)
• No clear favourite alliance of two important caste groups – MBCs and Koeris – accounting for 25% of population
• High pitch poll campaign

The various factors which would decide the winner of each seat are:
• Caste combination in the seat
• Anti-incumbency against sitting MLA
• Are there any rebel candidates?
• Are there cross-over candidates?
• How many candidates of the same caste are contesting?
• Are there any bahubalis contesting?
• Turnout

It’s a close contest and the ultimate winner will depend on whosever favour the above mentioned factors go. A good thing for NDA is that the vote share advantage of Janata alliance in the swing seats in Phase 3 is the lowest among the 3 phases at 5.9%. This is the phase where NDA can get a lead from Janata alliance in the race. Watch out for post poll update on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning…

Have a look at the seat by seat analysis and dynamics.


Have a look at the grand master sheet for Phase 3:


Want to know about Phase 3, have a look at the detailed overview.



  1. which election phase is Muslim dominated? Have you considered Muslim domination in your prediction? Many seats can go to Grand alliance due to Muslim dominates Seemanchal and Kosi region??


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