Comparison of Projections vs Actual Results

This post was due for long. A lot of readers demanded this post.

We present below a comparison of Politicalbaaba pre poll, post poll projections vs actual results and where we were bang on and were we were wrong.

In Jan. 2014, PB had projected 230 seats for NDA and 10 seats for TDP.  Arrangement with TDP was not finalised at that point of time. So in effect 240 seats for NDA. Post poll information was collected from many sources and media friends in a massive never attempted before exercise of seat by seat predictions. This number came to be 266. This could be termed as a conservative estimate. While initial reports pointed to a 300 type number, sources on ground were not confident. Plus we didn’t have the benefit of exit polls as our numbers were declared before exit polls. However, we said that 250 is the floor and NDA won’t get below this.

It turned out that NDA bagged 336. Major difference was UP (73 vs 42), Bihar (31 vs 20) and Maharashtra (42 vs 30). Plus NDA bagged more seats in J&K and Assam. I has always said / tweeted that anything below 220 – no wave, 220-250 Modi wave, 250-280 Modi frenzy and 280+ Modi Tsunami. Tsunami it was as BJP got majority on its own. It played upon its strengths all seats in Gujarat / Rajasthan, 27/29 in Maharashtra and 7/7 in Delhi.

In 18 of the 36 states / UTs Politicalbaaba projections were bang on as detailed below.

An analysis of the seat wise estimates show that we were on in 68% of the seats. I would say not bad at all.

There were learnings for me in this exercise and feedback from you all helped. Dil was saying 300, dimag said just short of majority. Dil was right…..

One comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s