For the past 15 years or so, Bihar politics has revolved around two poles – National Democratic Alliance (NDA) & United Progressive Alliance (UPA). NDA represented by BJP & Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United). UPA consisting of Congress and Lalu’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). While NDA banked on upper caste and OBC votes, UPA banked on Muslim-Yadav combination.
Lok Sabha Results
1998 (including Jharkhand): NDA 30, UPA 23
1999 (including Jharkhand): NDA 41, UPA 11
2004: NDA 11, UPA 25
2009: NDA 32, UPA 6
In July 2013, JD(U) and BJP parted ways. Nitish was jealous that peer Chief Minister Narendra Modi could be projected as PM candidate of NDA and hence pulled the plug. Party with which JD(U) worked for 17 long years suddenly became communal. In the meantime Lalu was jailed in fodder scam and pundits started predicting his political demise.
JD(U) started hobnobbing with Congress. JD(U) had ditched Modi, Congress biggest enemy and was sure of an electoral pact. Meanwhile Lalu got bail and started wooing Congress. Paswan unhappy with Lalu over seat adjustments also started wooing Congress directly.
Congress occupied the enviable position of a beautiful girl who everybody was infatuated to in school. So it turns out to be a quadrangular love story, heard of triangular ones and seen a lot of them in movies. Congress is flattered. 3 suitors. What for? All polls show that Congress will be routed in Lok Sabha in 2014. Then why are all regional parties in Bihar after it? For the Muslim votes. Congress is itself unsure of having keys to this votebank, but perception helps. While Nitish wants a tie-up to compensate for the loss of upper caste votes (after split with BJP), Lalu and Paswan do no want their Muslim votebank to split or go to JD(U).
Congress on the other hand is throwing tantrums (bhaav khaa rahi hai), taking its own sweet time. On marriage sites you see profiles which have great pictures to attract suitors, but when you actually meet them, they are totally different. In a similar manner, Congress is claiming it has Muslim votebank, and hence has got all prospective suitors from Bihar. While it has practically no votebank in Bihar.
On this Valentine’s Day, Lalu, Nitish & Paswan will be seen all queuing up outside Congress Headquarters in Delhi with red roses in their hands to seal the tie-up. JD(U) has joined Third Front but survey results showing it will be decimated to less than 10 seats in Bihar, would make Nitish re-think. Plus Lalu’s corrupt image could still tilt Congress in favour of Nitish, is what JD(U) feels.
Lets see who the lady luck will smile on…..