State Projections – Andhra Pradesh – Telangana saves Cong, Jagan Gains

We have till now covered the background of key political parties and their performance possibilities in next Lok Sabha elections. Many readers have asked me to include Aam Aadmi Party’s possibilities as well. I don’t think it will be a major force in the general elections. It may get a few seats in Delhi state elections though.

Further time constraints also are coming in my way of posting on the blog on a continuous basis. My endeavour is to keep posting on a daily basis.

Now we begin with State wise projections for the next Lok Sabha elections in alphabetical order.  The first state we have is Andhra Pradesh. What a tricky state to start with….

Andhra Pradesh, a southern state sends 42 members to Lok Sabha (8% of its total strength).  Hence it is a crucial state and plays a key role in government formation. It has been a Congress bastion with regional parties like Telgu Desam Party (NT Ramarao) and Telangana Rashtriya Samiti gaining some prominence in last few years.

Congress did really well in 2004 and 2009 elections winning 29 and 33 seats respectively riding on YSR’s wave and great performance in Andhra helped it form UPA I and UPAII.

1999: TDP 29, BJP 7, Congress 5, Others 1
2004: Congress 29, TRS 5, TDP 5, Left Front 2, Others 1
2009: Congress 33, TDP 6, TRS 2, Others 1    

Post YSR’s death, split in Congress party by Jagan (YSR’s son), Jagan’s arrest and dilly dallying in formation of Telangana has created a strong wave against Congress in the state. Before separate Telangan’s announcement the projections for Andhra was fairly simple.

2014E: YSR 17, TRS 12, TDP 8, Congress 5

Congress has given a twist to the while story. Telangan will have 17 seats and Congress could perform well there if it is able to ties up with TRS. KC Rao (TRS Chief) is a tough nut, but could still be lured by Congress (CM of Telangana post) to either merge or enter into a tie up. BJP could also take some credit and open its account in the state.

2014E: Congress / TRS: 17, YSR 15, TDP 6, BJP 2, Others 2

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