All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) was formed in 1972 by M.G. Ramachandran as a breakaway faction of the the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). The party has strong presence in T. Nadu and Pondicherry. It has formed govt. in T. Nadu six times. Jayalalithaa has been the undisputed leader since early 1990s and has been CM of the state four times. The party has 9 members in the current Lok Sabha.
For the past 30 years or so, people of T. Nadu have followed a very predictable pattern and given chance to AIADMK / DMK (the two major state parties) on an alternative basis to form state govt.
1984 – AIADMK, 1989 – DMK, 1991 – AIADMK, 1996 – DMK, 2001 – AIADMK, 2006 – DMK, 2011 – AIADMK
The party was earlier with NDA. However, the Vajpayee govt. in 1999 fell due to AIADMK withdrawing its support. Her party has not been in any govt. since then. In the next Lok Sabha elections, I feel she will go with NDA again.
Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections
(i) AIADMK sweeps the state, gets 30+ seats and emerges as single largest party after Congress and BJP. She will resist the temptation to lead Third Front govt. because she is wary of its contradictions. She might support BJP to form next govt.
(ii) AIADMK gets 20-30 seats and doesn’t emerge as the third largest party. She will go with NDA and play a key role in govt. formation.
(iii) AIADMK gets 10-20 seats. She will align with NDA.
If NDA / BJP is not able to form a govt., she might even support a Third Front govt. from outside. She would never support the Congress.