BJP – Part II


Here we take a look at NaMo’s difficult path ahead and BJP’s prospects in 2014 elections (if not held earlier).

NaMo – Difficult Road Ahead

NaMo has won the internal party struggle, however it is now time to perform. He will face opposition from Advani camp (Sushama Swaraj, Joshi, Ananth Kumar etc.) as also the Godhra riots will be in limelight once again. While he has charisma of a national leader and inspires party cadre / youth, his weakness is that he is CM of a small state (Gujarat sends only 26 MPs to Parliament, <5%).

Further he lacks rural support, his support base predominantly being through social media. While attending conclaves, industry summits provide visibility, they don’t fetch votes as people who attend these seminars don’t vote. Majority people who vote are from lower strata of society who I bet would not even know him outside of Gujarat. Remember in last elections he campaigned in 300 constituencies out of which BJP won only 25 (<9%).

However, this time it’s different. He has successfully become CM 3rd time trouncing Congress, his visibility and confidence levels are high, his model of development is being talked about (nationally / internationally) and there’s a lot of hype / hysteria around him. He has the backing of RSS and BJP President. Dissidents will fall in line as elections get closer as everybody would like to be in his good books. Will he perform or not. Only time will tell.

NDA (BJP + Shiv Sena + Akali Dal) Prospects Post Results in 2014

There are four possibilities for NDA post 2014 elections:

(i)            NDA gets majority (272+ seats): Nothing can stop NaMo from becoming PM, though admit that probability is remote.

(ii)           NDA gets 200-220 seats: Here again, NaMo could emerge as PM, with support from long time friend Jayalalitha (Amma) who is expected to get 30+ seats.

(iii)          NDA gets 180 seats and emerges as single largest alliance: Here, BJP would need support from Nitish, Mamta, Naveen Patnaik, Mayawati etc. and NaMo would not get a chance. However, since NaMo would play a key role in getting 180 seats, PM candidate would be from his camp (Jaitley, Rajnath). Rajnath could get NaMo to support him in a quid pro quo deal. Readers could say, how can Rajnath become PM. My friends if Deve Gowda, VP Singh, Chandrasekhar and Gujral could become PM why not Rajnath. At least he is legible to dream. Sushma could emerge as a consensus candidate here.

(iv)          NDA gets 150 seats: Here, BJP would sit in opposition and NaMo could continue as CM of Gujarat, go into oblivion or could resign as CM to take a national role to take a shot at 2019 elections.

Readers what do you think of BJP / NDA prospects?

 

 

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